Former U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, a move that could significantly impact Indian exports, particularly in the aluminum sector. If implemented, these tariffs could threaten nearly $1 billion worth of Indian exports, affecting both industries and trade relations between the two countries.

Key Impacts on Indian Exports

Factor	Details	Potential Impact
Proposed Tariff	25% on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.	Increased cost of Indian exports to the U.S.
Total Indian Exports at Risk	Nearly $1 billion, primarily aluminum and steel	Potential decline in export revenue
Aluminum Exports to the U.S.	$777 million (as of Nov 2024)	Significant impact due to high U.S. dependence
Steel Exports to the U.S.	U.S. accounts for only 5% of total Indian steel exports	Limited direct impact compared to aluminum
Aluminum Industry Concern	High percentage of India’s aluminum exports go to the U.S.	More vulnerable to trade disruptions
Economic Context	India’s total exports: $6.7 trillion in 2024	Tariffs could affect overall trade balance

Aluminum Industry Faces Higher Risk

The Indian aluminum industry is more vulnerable to these tariffs than steel, as U.S. imports accounted for a significant share of Indian aluminum exports in 2024. The 25% tariff would make Indian aluminum less competitive, potentially leading to reduced shipments and revenue losses.

Limited Impact on Steel Exports

In contrast, Indian steel exports to the U.S. form only a small portion of India’s total steel exports, minimizing the overall impact on the steel sector. However, Indian steelmakers could still face challenges if global trade flows shift due to U.S. protectionist measures.

Economic and Trade Considerations

• The proposed tariffs reflect broader economic policy shifts in the U.S., aimed at protecting domestic industries.
• India may explore alternative markets or negotiate exemptions to mitigate the impact.
• The decision could influence bilateral trade discussions between India and the U.S.

Conclusion

While the steel industry may face limited effects, the aluminum sector is at greater risk due to its reliance on U.S. demand. Indian exporters will need to strategize accordingly, exploring alternative markets and trade policies to counteract potential revenue losses.