India has reached a significant demographic milestone and continues to shape global arms trade trends. As the country surpasses China in population, shifts in arms imports and defense manufacturing strategies highlight key changes in regional and global power dynamics.

India’s Population Overtakes China

As of March 2023, India officially became the world’s most populous country, with an estimated population of 1.43 billion, surpassing China for the first time since the 1950s. This demographic shift has profound economic, social, and geopolitical implications, influencing labor markets, urban development, and resource distribution.

India’s Position as a Leading Arms Importer

India has emerged as the world’s second-largest arms importer, following Ukraine. Despite a 9.3% decline in arms imports compared to the 2015-2019 period, the country still accounted for 8.3% of total global arms imports between 2020-2024.

Russia remains India’s primary supplier, but its share has decreased from 55% to 36% due to India’s growing focus on diversifying sources and boosting domestic defense production.

Decline in China’s Arms Imports

China has dropped out of the top 10 global arms importers, largely due to increased self-reliance in defense manufacturing. From 2020 to 2024, its arms imports fell by 64% compared to the previous five-year period, reflecting the strength of its domestic military-industrial complex.

China’s Role as an Arms Exporter

While reducing its reliance on foreign weaponry, China has become the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter. Its primary markets are in Asia and Oceania, with Pakistan being the largest recipient, sourcing 81% of its military imports from China.

Challenges for India’s Defense Industry

India is actively expanding its indigenous arms production to reduce dependence on imports. However, China’s significant advancements in military technology pose challenges for India’s ambitions. Ongoing border tensions further emphasize the need for India to enhance its domestic defense capabilities.

Political Influence in Arms Trade

Beyond military needs, arms purchases are often influenced by political relationships. Many countries prefer sourcing weapons from the West rather than China due to geopolitical considerations, alliances, and strategic interests.

Key Data Summary

Key Factor	Details
India’s Population (2023)	1.43 billion (surpassing China)
Top Arms Importer	Ukraine
India’s Global Arms Import Share	8.3% (2020-2024)
India’s Arms Import Decline	9.3% decrease from 2015-2019
Russia’s Share in India’s Imports	Reduced from 55% to 36%
China’s Arms Import Decline	64% decrease (2020-2024)
China’s Role in Arms Export	4th largest exporter
Pakistan’s Dependence on China	81% of arms imports from China

Conclusion

India’s population growth and evolving defense procurement strategies are reshaping global power structures. While India remains a key arms importer, efforts to strengthen domestic manufacturing aim to enhance self-reliance. Meanwhile, China’s focus on exports and military advancements continues to influence regional security dynamics. The coming years will determine how these shifts impact the broader geopolitical landscape.