The global air cargo sector is undergoing significant shifts, particularly in flows between China and the United States. Policy changes, tariffs, and evolving trade dynamics are driving major adjustments in sourcing patterns, capacity allocation, and e-commerce distribution strategies.

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Decline in China-to-US Air Cargo

Air cargo volumes from China to the US have fallen sharply. The decline is most notable in low-value e-commerce shipments, which dropped by around 40% in July compared to April, following the end of the de minimis exemption in May. This policy change, combined with ongoing tariffs, has reduced the attractiveness of China as a source market for U.S.-bound airfreight.

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Key Data Snapshot

Category	Details
Drop in Low-Value E-Commerce Goods	-40% (July vs. April) after end of U.S. de minimis exemption
E-Commerce Share – Europe	Increased from 21% → 27%
E-Commerce Share – US	Decreased from 31% → 15%
E-Commerce Share – Other Regions	Increased from 48% → 57%
YoY Decline China → US Volumes	-19% (April–July)
Taiwan → US Growth	+119% YoY (April–July)
Vietnam → US Growth	+93% YoY (April–July)
Laptop Trade Partner Shift	Vietnam overtakes China as leading U.S. supplier
Taiwan Export Growth	Strong in computer hardware exports to the US
Fast-Growth US Import Markets	Italy & France (high-end fashion exports)
Overall Global Airfreight Volumes	+5.2% YoY, driven by e-commerce
Cargo Capacity Outlook	No growth since 2019; shortage risk as widebody aircraft deliveries decline

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Reallocation of E-Commerce

E-commerce trade flows are being restructured:

• The U.S. share of Chinese e-commerce volumes dropped from 31% to 15%.
• Europe’s share grew from 21% to 27%, while other destinations expanded from 48% to 57%.

This reflects how platforms are shifting strategies to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and regulatory changes.

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Shifts in Supply Chains

With tariffs and policy barriers reducing direct China-to-U.S. volumes, other Asian exporters are benefiting:

• Taiwan has seen a surge in computer hardware exports, up 119% to the U.S.
• Vietnam has overtaken China as the leading U.S. laptop supplier, with volumes rising 93%.

Meanwhile, European exporters—particularly in high-end fashion from Italy and France—are capturing more share of U.S. import demand.

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Capacity Challenges

Air cargo capacity remains constrained. Since 2019, there has been no net growth in widebody freighter capacity, while deliveries of new widebody passenger aircraft have also slowed. With demand rising, particularly from e-commerce, industry experts warn of potential capacity shortages in the near future.

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Outlook

While overall airfreight volumes are up 5.2% year-on-year, the China-to-U.S. trade lane is facing a deep correction due to:

1. The end of the de minimis exemption for low-value goods.
2. The impact of U.S. tariffs.
3. E-commerce reallocation to Europe and other regions.
4. Shifting supply chains toward Vietnam and Taiwan.
5. Broader capacity constraints in the global air cargo industry.

These dynamics highlight a pivotal moment in global airfreight, where the U.S. is reducing reliance on Chinese imports, while alternative markets and trade partners capture growth opportunities.