The air cargo sector continued its growth streak in August 2025, marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion. Demand rose by 4.1% year-on-year, reflecting resilience in the sector amid shifting trade dynamics, lower fuel costs, and a modal shift from sea to air driven by evolving tariff policies.
Despite steady performance, growth momentum slowed compared to July 2025’s 5.5% expansion, raising questions about the sustainability of the upward trend as global trade tensions and regulatory uncertainties persist.
Key Performance Indicators – August 2025
| Metric | August 2025 | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Year-on-Year Demand | +4.1% | Sixth consecutive month of growth, though slower than July. |
| Capacity (ACTK) | +3.7% | Airlines deployed more capacity, balancing demand effectively. |
| Load Factor | 44.2% | Improved due to aligned capacity and demand growth. |
| Jet Fuel Prices | -6.4% YoY | Fourteenth consecutive month of annual declines, lowering operating costs. |
| Modal Shift | Significant | Shippers shifting from sea to air for high-value goods amid tariff changes. |
Regional Performance – August 2025
| Region | Demand Growth (YoY) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Africa | +11% | Strongest regional growth; resilience driven by intra-regional trade. |
| Asia Pacific | +9.8% | Robust demand on intra-Asia and Asia-Europe corridors. |
| Europe | +3.2% | Moderate recovery, supported by Europe–Asia trade lanes. |
| Middle East | +2.7% | Gradual improvement tied to hub connectivity. |
| Latin America | +2.1% | Stable but limited growth. |
| North America | -2.1% | Weakest region; decline linked to tariff uncertainty and softer exports. |
Air Cargo Demand Comparison
| Month | Year-on-Year Growth (%) | Capacity Change (%) | Load Factor (%) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 4.1% | +3.7% | 44.2% | Sustained growth, driven by modal shift; slower pace than July. |
| July 2025 | 5.5% | Not specified | Not specified | Strongest month in recent streak; outpaced August. |
| June 2025 | ~0% (stalled) | Not specified | Not specified | Growth stagnated amid economic headwinds. |
| May 2025 | Positive | Not specified | Not specified | Signs of early recovery after weaker months. |
| Yearly Trend | Generally positive | Rising | Improving | Demand has remained resilient despite economic and policy uncertainties. |
Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024 Trends
| Aspect | Q3 2025 | Q3 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Demand Growth | +0.7% YoY – cooling trend | +11.3% YoY – strong recovery phase post-pandemic. |
| Capacity | Grew in line with demand; concerns of overcapacity emerging. | Tight capacity boosted rates and demand. |
| Freight Rates | Trending downwards; cargo yields down ~5.2% YoY. | Higher pricing power supported by constrained capacity. |
| Market Dynamics | Uncertainty due to tariffs, inflation, and weaker yields. | Favorable demand surge driven by e-commerce and economic rebound. |
| Regional Variation | Mixed – Africa and Asia strong, North America weak. | More uniform growth across major regions. |
| External Factors | Tariff shifts, inflation, and trade tensions creating cautious sentiment. | Pandemic recovery boosted cross-border consumption and logistics flows. |
Key Observations
- Sustained Growth but Slowing Momentum – August marked continued expansion, but at a slower pace than July.
- Modal Shift Impact – Tariff-driven trade policy changes are pushing shippers to use air cargo for high-value goods.
- Regional Divergence – Africa and Asia Pacific are outperforming, while North America lags behind.
- Fuel Prices Relief – Lower jet fuel costs are easing operational pressures on airlines.
- Cautious Outlook – With Q3 2025 growth at just 0.7% YoY (vs. 11.3% in Q3 2024), the market shows signs of cooling amid global uncertainties.
Conclusion
Air cargo in August 2025 demonstrated resilience with continued growth, backed by modal shifts and cost relief from lower fuel prices. However, the slower pace of growth, regional disparities, and tariff-related uncertainties point to a more cautious outlook moving forward.
While the industry remains vital to global trade flows—particularly for Asia-Pacific and Africa—operators must prepare for potential softening demand and competitive pricing pressures in the coming months.
Glottis Limited 
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