The World Bank has revised its outlook for China’s economic growth, raising the 2025 GDP forecast to 4.8%, up from earlier projections. While this marks a slight improvement, the institution cautioned that China’s growth momentum is likely to slow in 2024 to 4.2%, reflecting persistent structural and fiscal challenges.
Mixed Signals for Asia’s Largest Economy
China’s near-term economic prospects remain constrained by low consumer and business confidence, weak new export orders, and a potential reduction in fiscal stimulus due to rising public debt levels. These factors contribute to a structural deceleration, even as the government continues to pursue stimulus measures and infrastructure investments to support growth.
Despite these headwinds, the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region shows a modestly improved outlook, with growth expected to rise to 4.4% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point increase, before stabilizing at 4.5% in 2026.
Global Growth Forecast Comparison (World Bank, 2024–2025)
| Country/Region | 2024 GDP Growth Forecast | 2025 GDP Growth Forecast | Notable Factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 4.2% | 4.8% | Low confidence, weak exports, fiscal tightening, structural slowdown. |
| United States | 2.1% | 2.0% | Inflationary pressure and high interest rates temper resilience. |
| Eurozone | 0.6% | 1.4% | Impacted by energy costs, inflation, and subdued demand. |
| India | 6.5% | 6.9% | Strong domestic demand and robust government spending. |
| Japan | 2.0% | 1.5% | Aging population and inflation concerns weigh on output. |
| East Asia & Pacific (overall) | 4.5% | 4.4% | Improved regional outlook but uneven performance by country. |
Key Observations
- China’s Moderate Growth
The upward revision to 4.8% for 2025 suggests stabilization efforts are working, though growth remains subdued compared to past performance. - India Outpaces Regional Peers
India’s projected 6.9% GDP growth in 2025 positions it as the fastest-growing major economy, driven by domestic consumption and public investment. - Regional Interdependence
The East Asia & Pacific region’s growth is closely linked to China’s economic trajectory, making Beijing’s recovery critical to regional trade dynamics. - Advanced Economies Lagging
Growth in the U.S. and Eurozone remains modest, constrained by inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policies, underscoring a shift in global growth engines toward emerging markets.
Conclusion
While the World Bank’s upgraded forecast for China signals cautious optimism, underlying challenges such as debt pressures, weak exports, and structural slowdown persist. The global comparison highlights a shifting economic balance — India and emerging Asian economies are expected to drive much of the global growth momentum in 2025, as advanced economies grapple with slower recoveries.
China’s ability to navigate domestic headwinds while maintaining steady growth will be pivotal not only for its own stability but also for shaping the broader Asia-Pacific economic outlook in the coming years.
Glottis Limited 
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