India, the world’s largest importer of edible oils, is witnessing a significant decline in palm oil imports, with volumes projected to hit a five-year low in January 2025. This sharp drop underscores the shifting dynamics of the edible oil market, driven by competitive pricing and refining challenges.

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Key Highlights of India’s Palm Oil Import Trends

1. Sharp Decline in Imports

India’s palm oil imports are expected to reach just 370,000 metric tons in January 2025, a stark contrast to 782,983 tons imported during the same period in 2024.

2. Negative Refining Margins

A primary driver of this decline is negative refining margins, making palm oil less attractive to refiners. Refiners are reportedly incurring losses exceeding $30 per ton on January shipments.

3. Comparative Advantage of Soyoil

Soyoil, traditionally priced at a premium to palm oil, is currently being offered at a discount, further incentivizing buyers to switch.

4. Vessel Activity and Import Sources

• Vessel traffic carrying palm oil to major Indian ports such as Kandla, Haldia, and Krishnapatnam is expected to remain low in the coming weeks.
• India sources palm oil primarily from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while soyoil and sunflower oil are imported from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

5. Crude Palm Oil Pricing

The price of crude palm oil (CPO) for January delivery is around $1,155 per ton, with expectations of further reductions for February and March deliveries.

6. Economic Impact on Refiners

The unfavorable pricing scenario has put significant financial pressure on refiners, further discouraging palm oil purchases.

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Summary Table of Key Data

Aspect	Details
Expected Imports (Jan 2025)	370,000 metric tons (5-year low)
Imports in Jan 2024	782,983 metric tons
Losses for Refiners	Over $30 per ton for January shipments
Crude Palm Oil Price (Jan)	$1,155 per ton
Major Import Ports	Kandla, Haldia, Krishnapatnam
Primary Palm Oil Sources	Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand
Soyoil Sources	Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine
Reason for Shift	Soyoil offered at a discount; negative refining margins for palm oil

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Changing Dynamics in India’s Edible Oil Market

The decline in palm oil imports reflects broader trends in India’s edible oil market, where competitive pricing and profitability are reshaping buying patterns. As refiners grapple with challenging margins and buyers turn to soyoil for cost advantages, palm oil’s dominance faces headwinds.

The reduced vessel activity and lower imports could also impact global palm oil producers, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, as India remains a critical market for their exports.

This trend is likely to persist unless pricing and refining margins improve, signaling a pivotal moment in India’s edible oil landscape.