Vietnam, long considered a reliable export hub for the United States, is facing increasing competition from India and other emerging players. A recent analysis highlights a shifting trade landscape, driven by changing U.S. tariff policies and overlapping export categories across developing economies.

Key Developments in the U.S.-Vietnam Export Dynamic

Aspect	Details
Vietnam’s Export Competition	Faces stiff competition in nearly 10% of the items it currently exports to the U.S.
India as a Challenger	India competes with Vietnam in 123 of 1,227 categories where both are top-10 exporters to the U.S.
Vietnam’s Stronghold	Vietnam outperforms India in 292 categories of U.S.-bound exports.
Tariff Pressure on Others	Countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and South Africa are at risk from higher U.S. tariffs, weakening their competitive edge.
Tariff Implications for India	While India may face setbacks in certain sectors due to reciprocal tariffs, it gains advantage in categories where others face heavier duties.

Analysis: India’s Rising Role in the U.S. Market

The Moneycontrol analysis indicates that India is gradually positioning itself as a viable alternative to Vietnam, especially in diversified product categories such as textiles, machinery, and select electronics. The overlap in 123 export categories signifies an opportunity for Indian exporters to tap into U.S. demand—particularly as Washington tightens tariff measures on some developing nations.

Vietnam’s Enduring Strength

Despite these pressures, Vietnam maintains a strong export presence, outperforming India in 292 product categories. Its established supply chains, efficient production infrastructure, and strong trade ties with the U.S. continue to offer a competitive advantage.

The Broader Tariff Landscape

The impact of evolving U.S. tariff structures is not limited to India and Vietnam. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and South Africa now face heightened risks as U.S. trade policy shifts focus. These countries may find it harder to retain price competitiveness, inadvertently offering India and Vietnam more room to grow—depending on how each country adapts to these external shocks.

Conclusion

The evolving U.S. trade environment is reshaping global export dynamics. Vietnam continues to lead in many sectors, but the rise of India as a competitor, coupled with tariff disadvantages for others, is setting the stage for a more balanced and contested export market. As policies evolve, countries that can offer resilience, quality, and pricing stability will have a decisive edge in the race for U.S. market share.