India and the United States have taken a significant step forward in strengthening bilateral economic ties. The finalization of the Terms of Reference (ToR) for the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) marks a pivotal moment in both nations’ commitment to expanding trade cooperation.

Key Developments

The finalized ToR sets the stage for a structured negotiation process that will unfold in two phases:

• Virtual discussions for the initial tranche are expected to begin shortly.
• Physical talks are scheduled to commence in May 2025, where broader trade terms and sectoral alignments will be deliberated.

Positive Export Performance

Amid a challenging global economic environment, India has reported merchandise exports worth $437.42 billion in FY25, showcasing resilience and strategic competitiveness across sectors.

Key Data Snapshot

Parameter	Details
India-US Trade Deal Status	Terms of Reference finalized
Start of Virtual Talks	April 2025 (expected)
Physical Negotiations Begin	May 2025
India’s FY25 Merchandise Exports	$437.42 billion
Tariffs Under Evaluation	10% baseline + selective sectoral tariffs
External Factors Influencing Trade	China’s tariffs on US goods
Global Trade Outlook (WTO)	Pessimistic
India’s Trade Outlook	Comparatively optimistic

External Factors: The China Angle

China’s decision to increase tariffs on US imports may have a redirecting effect, making India a potential market for US agricultural products. This shift could open up new avenues for India to negotiate favorable terms in agri-trade.

Government’s Evaluation in Progress

India’s trade ministry is currently assessing the impact of newly introduced tariffs, including:

• A 10% baseline tariff, and
• Specific sectoral levies that may influence market dynamics and consumer pricing.

Trade in the Face of Global Uncertainty

While the World Trade Organization (WTO) has issued a pessimistic forecast for global trade, India’s export figures and policy agility offer a silver lining. The resilience in merchandise exports suggests that India’s trade policy is effectively navigating turbulence.

Conclusion

The India-US BTA, backed by promising export growth and a proactive government stance, positions India strategically in global trade. As talks progress, stakeholders can expect deeper engagement, potential sectoral breakthroughs, and enhanced market access on both sides.