The recent overhaul of U.S. trade policies marks a critical turning point for the air cargo and cross-border e-commerce sectors, especially impacting shipments originating from China and Hong Kong. The decision to eliminate tariff-free access for low-value goods and impose hefty import duties has set off a chain reaction across the global logistics and retail ecosystems.

Below is an in-depth look at the consequences of these policy shifts:

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Overview of Policy Changes

At the center of the disruption is the U.S. government’s move to revoke de minimis tariff exemptions for low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong. This means packages valued at less than $800—previously exempt—will now be subject to a 145% tariff, drastically increasing the cost of Chinese imports for American consumers.

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Key Impacts at a Glance

Impact Area	Details
Tariff Changes	145% tariff on Chinese imports; cancellation of tariff-free entry for low-value shipments
Revenue Loss (Air Cargo)	Estimated $22 billion revenue loss over the next 3 years
Effect on Small Sellers	Many Chinese SMEs unable to bear the increased costs; high attrition risk
E-commerce Platforms	Platforms like Temu and Shein likely to raise prices, shift to U.S. fulfillment models
Customs Complexity	More stringent customs checks and paperwork, increasing checkout friction for buyers
Air Cargo Volume	Expected sharp decline, prompting airlines to cut routes and retire aging freighters
Alternative Sourcing Markets	Potential pivot to Vietnam and other low-tariff countries for sourcing
Longer Processing Times	Shipments may face longer customs clearance vs. previous de minimis processing
Future Policy Risks	Risk of full de minimis elimination could disrupt global e-commerce further
Industry-Level Challenges	Threats to business viability due to cost hikes, logistics delays, and consumer trust erosion

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Broader Implications for the Global Supply Chain

1. Strain on E-commerce Logistics

The higher costs and customs delays could force a major rethinking of logistics networks. Chinese companies heavily reliant on small parcel exports to the U.S. may have to establish warehouses closer to their customer base or partner with local distributors to remain competitive.

2. Airlines Under Pressure

Airlines specializing in Asia-U.S. air cargo lanes are seeing reduced booking volumes. The expected dip in demand could also disrupt capacity planning and force retirement of older cargo aircraft, impacting freight rate dynamics globally.

3. Shifts in Consumer Behavior

With higher prices and delivery uncertainties, American consumers may become more inclined to seek domestic or third-country alternatives, changing the face of online shopping and potentially benefiting U.S. sellers or ASEAN-based exporters.

4. The Policy Domino Effect

If de minimis benefits are revoked for all nations, it could lead to a global slowdown in cross-border trade—posing major implications for countries that have modeled their e-commerce ecosystems around U.S. market access.

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Conclusion

The new U.S. trade measures represent more than just a tariff increase—they are reshaping the very mechanics of global air cargo and cross-border e-commerce. As companies reassess their strategies in the face of rising costs, tighter compliance requirements, and uncertain market access, agility and innovation will become key survival tools in this new era of trade.