The Red Sea, one of the world’s most crucial maritime trade routes, is witnessing a notable recovery in shipping traffic after months of disruption caused by Houthi attacks. While a U.S.-brokered ceasefire has brought some relief, the region remains tense, with reduced naval escort capacity and ongoing safety concerns.

Shipping Traffic Shows Signs of Recovery

Since August 2024, marine traffic through the Red Sea has increased by 60%, rising from a low of 20–23 ships per day to 36–37 ships daily. This upturn follows a ceasefire deal between the United States and the Houthi rebels, which has significantly reduced the frequency of missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels.

However, the traffic remains well below the pre-conflict average of 72–75 ships per day, a stark reminder of the enduring security concerns and the fragility of the current calm.

---

Key Metrics: Red Sea Shipping & Security Trends

Category	Details
Current Traffic (June 2025)	36–37 ships/day
Traffic Low (Early 2024)	20–23 ships/day
Pre-Attack Average (2023)	72–75 ships/day
Ceasefire Impact	Reduced Houthi missile and drone strikes
Houthi Targeting Focus	Mainly Israeli-linked vessels; ~99% safety for others
EUNAVFOR Aspides Ships	Only 2–3 ships available for escorts
Average Escort Delay	Up to 1 week
Protection Mission Success	476 ships protected; 18 drones and 4 ballistic missiles intercepted

---

Narrowed Targeting Strategy by Houthis

As part of a strategic shift, the Houthi rebels have reportedly focused their attacks on Israeli ships or those with clear connections to Israel. Analysts suggest this has resulted in a 99% probability of safe passage for vessels not fitting this profile, which has contributed to the partial return of maritime traffic.

Naval Escort Mission Stretched Thin

The EU-led naval mission, EUNAVFOR Aspides, has played a pivotal role in stabilizing the situation by escorting ships and neutralizing threats. However, the mission is constrained by a limited presence—just 2 to 3 vessels—leading to escort delays of up to seven days for merchant ships seeking protection.

Despite these limitations, the mission has demonstrated operational effectiveness:

• 476 ships escorted
• 18 drones shot down
• 4 ballistic missiles intercepted

Calls for additional naval support are gaining momentum as trade stakeholders press for improved security infrastructure in the region.

Geopolitical Underpinnings

The resurgence of attacks in late 2023 was closely tied to the Israel-Gaza conflict, with the Houthis expressing support for Palestinians and escalating their targeting of maritime traffic to apply pressure. Although the recent ceasefire has brought a lull in attacks, the underlying tensions remain unresolved.

Conclusion

While the Red Sea has seen a partial revival of shipping activity, a full return to pre-crisis levels hinges on sustained peace, increased naval protection, and broader geopolitical stability. For now, ship operators must continue to balance the risks of transit with the logistical and economic imperatives of global trade.