Vietnam’s rice export sector is facing a complex dynamic in 2025, characterized by soaring export volumes and declining global prices. While Vietnam shipped a substantial 4.5 million tonnes of rice in the first five months of the year — marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase — the average export price fell sharply by 18.7%, reducing overall export earnings by 8.9% compared to the same period in 2024.

This article unpacks the critical trends in Vietnam’s rice export industry and its standing in an increasingly competitive global market.

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Key Data Summary – Vietnam Rice Exports (Jan–May 2025)

Indicator	Value	Year-on-Year Change
Export Volume	4.5 million tonnes	▲ 12.2%
Export Revenue	$2.34 billion	▼ 8.9%
Average Export Price	$516.4 per tonne	▼ 18.7%
Harvested Area (by May 2025)	2.57 million hectares	▼ 2% in yield vs. 2024
Total Paddy Production	~17.5 million tonnes	▼ 2%
Top Importer	Philippines (41.4% of total exports)	—
Domestic Paddy Prices	IR 50404: VNĐ6,600/kg ($0.26)	Stable
	Jasmine: VNĐ8,400/kg ($0.331)	Stable
Retail Rice Prices	VNĐ14,000–15,000/kg ($0.553–$0.593)	Varies by variety
	Thai Imported Aromatic Rice: VNĐ20,000–22,000/kg ($0.79–$0.87)	—
Processed Rice Prices	VNĐ9,500–9,700/kg ($0.375–$0.383)	—

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Key Observations

1. Price vs. Volume Paradox

While volume surged, Vietnam’s rice exporters are grappling with falling prices. The average export price of $516.4 per tonne in early 2025 represents a drop of nearly 19% from 2024 levels, driven by global supply pressures and competition.

2. Stable Domestic Market

In the Mekong Delta, Vietnam’s primary rice-producing region, paddy prices have held steady, providing some relief for farmers. Jasmine and IR 50404 varieties remain in demand, maintaining price stability at the farm level.

3. Retail and Processed Market Diversity

Retail prices range significantly, reflecting the wide array of rice grades. Ordinary rice ranges from VNĐ14,000 to VNĐ15,000 per kg, while premium imported varieties command up to VNĐ22,000 per kg. Processed rice sells at VNĐ9,500–9,700 per kg, showing consistent domestic consumption patterns.

4. Shift in Import Market Focus

The Philippines remains the top buyer of Vietnamese rice, but signs of supplier diversification threaten Vietnam’s dominant share. Meanwhile, exports to Côte d’Ivoire, China, and Bangladesh are expanding — the latter showing a dramatic rise in value.

5. Yield Pressures

Despite strong planting efforts (4.22 million hectares), only 2.57 million hectares were harvested by May 2025. Total output fell by 2%, reflecting either yield reductions or unfavorable weather patterns.

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Global Competitive Pressure

Vietnam isn’t alone in facing falling prices. Other major rice exporters like India are also experiencing pricing pressures due to currency fluctuations and positive crop forecasts, adding further downward stress on global prices. This suggests a need for Vietnam to pivot to higher-value markets such as Japan and the EU, where quality can command better pricing.

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Conclusion

Vietnam’s rice industry in 2025 is walking a fine line: higher export volumes show its competitiveness, but declining prices and increasing global rivalry raise concerns over long-term sustainability. The country’s strategic push to access premium markets while managing domestic price stability will be key in determining the resilience of its rice export economy.

As global supply expands and importers diversify, value-added differentiation, quality certification, and strategic trade agreements will become crucial pillars of Vietnam’s export strategy.