India is poised to challenge Sri Lanka and the Philippines in the U.S. export market, as recent trade and tariff dynamics open opportunities for Indian exporters to gain ground. A deep-dive analysis reveals that approximately 20% of the exports from Sri Lanka and the Philippines to the U.S. are vulnerable to Indian competition, especially in light of revised U.S. tariff policies.

India’s competitive edge, bolstered by its $87.3 billion export value in 2023, positions it well to capitalize on these shifts and potentially realign trade flows in its favor.

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Key Data Summary

Country	U.S. Export Value (2023)	Exports at Risk (%)	Exports at Risk (Value)	Key Products at Risk	Tariff Challenge
Sri Lanka	$2.98 billion	21%	~$618 million	Garments, precious stones, tea	30% U.S. duty
Philippines	$13.7 billion	17.2%	~$2.35 billion	Routers, modems, inverters, backpacks, gym bags	Mid-to-high duties
Brazil	N/A	7.4%	~$3 billion trade shift opportunity for India	N/A	50% U.S. duty
India	$87.3 billion (to U.S.)	N/A	Opportunity to capture share from 14 nations	Textiles, electronics, machinery, jewelry	Relatively favorable duty scenario
Other At-Risk Nations	Myanmar (27%), Bangladesh (22%), Indonesia (19%)	N/A	Trade volume potential significant	Varied sectors	Higher tariff exposure

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India’s Strategic Advantage

India’s large, diversified export base and relatively stable trade relations with the U.S. make it an ideal alternative for American importers facing rising tariffs from other nations. Key areas of gain include:

• Textiles and Apparel: Direct competition with Sri Lanka in men’s shirts, nightwear, and jerseys.
• Electronics: Overlap with Philippine exports in routers, modems, and inverters.
• Jewelry and Precious Stones: Growing Indian expertise challenges Sri Lanka’s traditional strength.

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Tariff Dynamics: A Window of Opportunity

The realignment of U.S. tariffs—specifically the reduction or removal of benefits for 14 countries—has reshaped sourcing decisions for American buyers. Countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Myanmar now face stiffer competition due to higher duties, while India remains better positioned due to its trade agreements and ongoing negotiations.

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Future Outlook: Preferential Tariffs Could Be a Game-Changer

If India can secure a preferential tariff agreement with the U.S., its already strong export base could expand significantly. A duty reduction on key Indian exports could tip the balance even further in India’s favor, especially as global buyers seek stable, scalable alternatives outside of China and Southeast Asia.

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Conclusion

With tariff winds shifting and trade dynamics in flux, India stands to gain a significant share of U.S.-bound exports currently dominated by Sri Lanka and the Philippines. If supported by strategic trade negotiations and supply chain readiness, India could solidify its position as a preferred sourcing destination for the U.S. in 2025 and beyond.