The trans-Pacific container shipping market is currently grappling with a mix of stable yet subdued rates, falling freight volumes, and persistent overcapacity. Despite repeated attempts by carriers to push through General Rate Increases (GRIs), market conditions are proving unfavorable, leaving rates far below last year’s peak season highs.
Current Market Highlights
| Key Factor | Details / Data |
|---|---|
| Container Rates (Asia–US) | $1,700 per FEU (West Coast) and $2,700 per FEU (East Coast); rates stable despite GRI attempts. |
| Freight Volumes | Declining on most major routes; exception is Vietnam, with a +4.88% YoY increase. |
| Golden Week Impact | Carriers blank sailings ahead of Golden Week (Oct 1–8), traditionally a slow shipping period, adding further downward pressure on rates. |
| Overcapacity | Market oversupply persists, making it difficult for carriers to sustain GRIs or raise spot rates. |
| Rate Comparison (2023 vs 2024) | Current rates ($1,700–$2,700/FEU) are well below last year’s $7,000–$8,000/FEU peak season levels. |
| Red Sea Disruptions | Ongoing disruptions have depressed rates further; many carriers have written off the route for the year. |
| Asia–North Europe Rates | Declined 7% to $2,841 per FEU, showing softening demand beyond trans-Pacific routes. |
| Fleet Growth | New vessel deliveries are expanding capacity, worsening overcapacity concerns and sustaining low rate levels. |
Analysis
The contrast with last year’s elevated rates underscores how quickly market dynamics can shift. With demand weakening and capacity expanding, carriers face an uphill battle in restoring profitability. The Red Sea crisis, though significant, has not been enough to offset the pressure of overcapacity in other lanes.
Golden Week is expected to further suppress demand, with blank sailings offering little relief in balancing supply with demand. The resilience of Vietnam’s export growth (+4.88%) stands out as a rare bright spot in an otherwise subdued market.
Outlook
Looking ahead, the container shipping industry remains in flux:
- Carriers are expected to continue testing GRIs, but sustained increases appear unlikely without a demand rebound.
- Overcapacity will remain a structural challenge as new fleets enter the market.
- Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Red Sea and other chokepoints, will continue to add uncertainty.
For shippers, the current environment offers lower freight costs compared to last year but comes with higher unpredictability in service schedules and routing.
Glottis Limited 
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